Reducing carbon footprints in grassland-dominated milk production by rewetting of organic soils and intensified forage productivity on mineral soils

Peatland rewetting is crucial for Germany to achieve net greenhouse gas (GHG) neutrality by 2045 as it can help to drastically reduce emissions in the LULUCF sector. This study combines farm-level Life Cycle Assessment with the biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC to evaluate three different Bavarian dairy farm systems with varying peatland shares, quantifying GHG mitigation potential of rewetting and associated trade-offs in forage production. Rewetting reduces peatland emissions by about 84%, lowering total product carbon footprint by 14-53%. However, a biophysical compensation failure threshold (Xcrit) is identified at a peatland share of 21.8 %. Farms below this threshold can maintain forage production by intensifying mineral soils, while those exceeding it, such as high peat share farms (40% peatland), face structural shortfalls and can realistically rewet only half of their peatland area without production losses. At regional scale, a circular solution appears biophysically feasible. Aggregated results for the Ammer region indicate that the potential forage surplus from intensification on mineral soils exceeds deficits associated with peatland rewetting by nearly two-fold, while additional emissions from intensified production and increased transport remain small relative to mitigation gains. Practical implementation, however, needs to manage increased nitrogen losses on intensified mineral soils and account for site-specific socio-economic constraints. Realizing this transformation requires EU Common Agricultural Policy payments to incentivize regional cooperation and address associated socio-economic implications of transitioning away from drained peatland use, providing the necessary framework for integrating alternative land-use and restoration goals.

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